"We're now in Barack Obama's world where money goes into the most inefficient parts of the economy and we're bailing everyone out," says Daviowitz, who opposes bailouts for banks and the automakers. "The bailout money is in the sewer and gone."

This outlook is based on the following main points:

• Unemployment - unemployment rates are rising into double digits... and there's millions more that are "underemployed" in jobs paying half as much as their previous.  Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity and Americans aren't spending like they used to.
• Housing - The $8 trillion negative wealth effect of housing means more Americans will default on mortgages... as well as student loans and auto loans and credit card debt and any other kind of loan they managed to get.
• Commercial Real Estate - More consumer loan defaults will hit banks and commercial real estate is also headed for a crash... remember the recent bankruptcy of General Growth Properties?  This is a huge deal.  

New jobless claims were up more than expected last week... supposedly due to the auto industry layoffs.  However, there are layoffs everywhere.  It shouldn't be a surprise that this number increased.  If just one of these "analysts" would be realistic about the situation there would be estimates that are right on the number. 

The Labor Department said that the number of new claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 637,000, from a revised 605,000 the previous week. That's above analysts' expectations of 610,000... nice job analyst.   So much for the recession's end being near.

Read more here.

The number of new people filing for unemployment benefits fell to 601,000, much less than the expected 634,000.  However, the rise in continuing claims to 6.35 million was registered for the week ending April 25... up from 6.30 million in the previous week and the highest tally on record dating back to 1967.

"The high level of continuing claims is a sign that many laid-off workers are having difficulty finding work."  This is a quote from the linked article.  What a genius.  There aren't any new jobs so how are people suppose to find work!  Everyone I know is waiting for a good job to open up and it's not happening.  Eventually high qualified people will have to take lower paying jobs and this will result in our economy being less robust for years and years.

Even Mr. Bernanke realizes that there are going to be a lot more jobs lost in the coming months... on Tuesday he predicted "further sizable job losses" in the coming months.  Companies are still laying off thousands of workers at a time.  Dupont just announced they're laying off 2,000 workers.  Other companies are taking every measure possible before laying people off like cutting 401k match, paycuts, and reducing travel... but this is only a temporary fix for the bottom line.  Layoffs are the next step.

It is impossible for the Government to keep paying out unemployment benefits at the current rates.... State and Local Governments are already struggling financially.  Even teachers are being given the pink slip in record numbers.  And with unemployment remaining at record highs they're going to have a tough time paying out funds to the jobless.... next up is the State and Local government bailout.  That will be a fun one.  Maybe call it the SALER... State and Local Economic Relief.

Read more here.

The latest job report revealed that job losses have slowed, but they are still high relative to historical standards.  This is based off of the ADP National Employment Report, which is an unofficial gauge of the employment picture.  April's numbers were much better than March, but we're still losing half a million jobs per month.  And again, this is an unofficial report... I think I'll start coming out with the Unofficial Richard Savvy Jobs Report and if it's positive I'm sure people would take it into account... 

This "unofficial report" also said that unemployment is likely to rise for the next several months, but at a slower rate... so it's basically going from extremely bad to pretty bad.  Is this a good sign?  Of course it is, but we're not out of the woods yet and this euphoric buying that's going on is not warranted.  There is still too much bad news that has yet to surface. 

Unemployment and weakness in the housing market are the biggest obstacles threatening an economy... and if you don't have a job you can't buy a house... or if you're worried about losing your job you won't buy a house.  I think the majority of America is in this boat... or raft.

The Labor Department will give a report on job losses this Friday... which will give another pseudo positive look at how many jobs have been lost. 

Lately there has been a lot of confidence on Wall Street amidst bad news across many fronts.  Investors have seemed to ignore mixed earnings reports, fears about a possible swine flu pandemic and a bankruptcy filing from one of the country's largest automakers, Chrysler LLC.  This bear market rally has driven the market up more than 25 percent from 12-year lows in early March.  Be warry.  Stress test results are coming out tomorrow and could put us back at square 1... or square negative 1.  Then there's the job report on Friday...

Then Mother's Day on Sunday... go buy your Mom something nice and stimulate this economy... maybe like a house.

Read more here.

We are officially in the land of reading between the lines to only find good news.  The number of newly laid-off workers dropped unexpectedly last week, but the number of people continuing to get their unemployment money rose to nearly 6.3 million, setting a record high for the 13th straight week.

631,000 people filed for unemployment last week... down from the prior week's 645,000.  But this is only a 14,000 job difference.  One company can make up that difference in one day.  GM is set to layoff another 21,000 workers for example.

Furthermore, the current number of people receiving unimployment jumped to 6.27 million, the highest on records since 1967 and steeper than economists expected.  Yet the stock market is still up because we somehow found good news here?

I would say the only good news is that the savings rate is holding steady, even slightly increasing.  The personal savings rate rose to 4.2 percent from 4 percent in February. It was at 4.4 percent back in January... that's the first time in more than ten years the rate has been above 4 percent for three straight months.

But economists look at the higher savings rate as a worrisome sign.  That's a very short term way to look at things.  There is no quick fix to the problem and Americans need to start saving, reduce their debt, and feel like their house won't lose more value before we are truly on the road to recovery. 

Households have been cutting back on spending and boosting savings during the recession, worried that they need to replenish depleted nest eggs as job cuts mount and investment values plunge.

Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity... so it's understandable that it's so closely watched, but the savings rate increasing is a good thing for the long term.  Maybe things will get worse before they get better and the road to recovery will take longer, but at least we'll be fundamentally and financially sound if we continue to save... otherwise we'll be dealing with another "economic crisis" in 5 to 10 years.

Read more here.

The unemployment rate is soaring just like the stock market.  Does this make any sense?  No.

All 372 reporting metro areas had increasing unemployment rates.  Companies are laying off workers like crazy so they can barely hit their low earnings estimates... but this is a short term solution to a much larger problem.  You don't spend money when you don't have a job and you don't spend money when you're worried about losing your job.  How many of you are in one of those positions?

Bend, OR has a 17 percent unemployement rate... a 9.2 percent month over month increase.  Might as well start calling it Bend Over, OR.  Indiana, North Carolina, California, and Michigan also had huge increases. 

More people applying for unemployment benefits and more State and Local governments going broke.  The next dominos are ready to tip over and the DOW will be back at 7000 in no time.  Take profits now and buy back later in the year. 

Read more here.

Hopes of a recover waned today as jobless claims unexpectly jumped and existing housing sales fell month over month.  It appears that we're not in the midst of a recovery, more of a sucker's rally.  The stock market will test previous lows and housing has another 20 percent to fall.  Watch out.  Read more here.

Yahoo announced nasty earnings and another round of layoffs today.

This is Yahoo's third round of slimming the job force in the last year.  The layoffs will affect about 5 percent of Yahoo's 13,500 workers and employees will start getting the "pack your belongings and get out of here" notices over the next two weeks.

The last two cuts totaled 2,500 jobs... so that's a total of about 3,200 jobs, or 20 percent of the original work force that started 2008 with Yahoo!  Boo! Hoo!

Yahoo's earnings dropped 78 percent from the same period a year ago as the search engine earned $118 million in the first quarter... if you can't do the math, that means they earned $537 million in the first three months of last year.  More than a $400 million difference!

Facebook, MySpace and Google are making Yahoo an internet dinosaur about to go extinct... but investors applauded the cost saving cuts as the stock gained more than 5 percent today, closing at $14.38.  Yay for Yahoo, but don't even think about hopping on that train.

Read more here.