New jobless claims were up more than expected last week... supposedly due to the auto industry layoffs.  However, there are layoffs everywhere.  It shouldn't be a surprise that this number increased.  If just one of these "analysts" would be realistic about the situation there would be estimates that are right on the number. 

The Labor Department said that the number of new claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 637,000, from a revised 605,000 the previous week. That's above analysts' expectations of 610,000... nice job analyst.   So much for the recession's end being near.

Read more here.

 
 
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"We've never seen two consecutive months like this," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's senior vice president for marketing. "It's the volume that's surprising."

How stupid are the people in the industry?  What are you surprised about?  Foreclosures are going to keep happening because no one has a job to pay their mortgage and even if they find another job it's not paying as much as the previous... America got into a nasty habit of buying more house than they can afford and foreclosures will keep happening for years to come because of all the funky loans that financed this irrational buying. 

Read the full story here.

 
 

This is ridiculous.  Read it on your own, but how can we keep giving the broken companies money?  $51 billion thus far... when will it end?

Read more here.

 
 

Welcome to the world of viewing bad news as "less bad" or "not as bad as before"... but it's still terrible news.  The fundamentals of our economy are still in very bad shape.  Commercial real estate will crash, unemployment will keep going up, the government is spending recklessly, and inflation will ultimately run its course.  This bear market rally may last another few weeks, but take some profits and buy again when the dow is back around 6500.

Read more here.

 
 

Here comes the next great Ponzi scheme... welcome Social Security and Medicare.  Current taxpayers are paying for programs that won't exist when it's their turn to start collecting.  Bernie Madoff is little league compared to this Major League Ponzi Problem.  Social Security and Medicare are both heading for insolvency in no time.

Social Security will start paying out more in benefits than it collects in taxes in 2016... yes, that's only 7 years from now and a year sooner than projected last year.  The giant trust fund will be depleted by 2037... that's before a lot of taxpayers will even be eligible for benefits.

Medicare is in an even deeper hole. The program will pay out more in benefits than it collects this year (yes 2009), just as it did for the first time in 2008. The Medicare fund will be depleted by 2017, two years earlier than the date projected last year.  That is some scary news... and the actual article below is even scarier.

Read more here.



 
 

The outlook on the economy is still negative, but when compared to how things were in the past we're looking pretty damn good.  Things will get worse before they get better... much worse.  But if you look at the big picture, everything is amazing. 

 
 

Toyota Motor Corp. lost 765.8 billion yen (that's $7.7 billion) in the first quarter... its worst fiscal year since the Japanese automaker was founded in 1937.  They even lost more than General Motors.  Not a small feat.

Toyota warned today that because of the global auto slump its net loss would deepen throughout the rest of 2009 and into 2010.  If the companies making quality cars are struggling then how is GM supposed to survive?  More trouble ahead for the automakers.

Read more here.

 
Summer Rally 05/08/2009
 

The summer rally is on.  The weather is nice and the news is "less bad".  There's a whole lot more bad news that needs to come out before this rally can last.  Look at the Dow Jones chart since mid-March.  There's no way we don't re-test 7000 - 7500 again.  This euphoria might last through summer, but make sure you take some profits before it starts getting cold.  Oil stocks are still okay.

Read more here.

 
 

Retailers are reporting numbers that are "less bad" than analysts expected... and analysts had extremely low expectations.  However, this is somewhat of a good sign.  At least it's summer.  Everyone is in a better mood and pulls out that credit card again.

These stores reported better than expected declines: Gap, American Eagle and Wet Seal.

These stores reported better than expected gains: The Children's Place, T.J. Maxx owner TJX Cos. Inc. and The Buckle.

T.J. Maxx can probably keep this up due to their name brands at low prices strategy... but I'd stay away from the rest of retail.

Read more here.

 
 

And here comes oil... I've been saying this for the past few months.  The price for a barrel of crude hit $58.16 momentarily and is now hovering just under $58.00. 

Oil can't stay at the current levels.  It's impossible because Americans have short term memory and start using gas like it's no big deal after they pay around $2.00 a gallon for a few months... also, OPEC can cut production to get prices back up to their goal of $75.00 a barrel.  We need oil... and until there is an alternative energy that replaces it... there's no where for it to go but up.  Like a hot air balloon. 

Read more here.